Probabilistic Analysis of Route Deviation Bus Lines

Route Deviation Bus Lines (RDBLs) constitute a hybrid between traditional fixed-route bus lines and demand responsive, dial-a-ride systems; they are viewed as a promising way to combine responsive transportation services with high productivity. We investigate the performance of Route Deviation Bus Lines through development of some simplified probabilistic models. The dependence of performance on such parameters as the demand intensity at checkpoints, the magnitude and distribution of headways and the number of checkpoints are explored. This study begins by describing the problem and then identifies the different issues in the probabilistic analysis of RDBLs with emphasis on the two generic processes of bus systems: the arrival process of passengers, and the service process. We derive closed form expressions for the one call box case (Chapter III) and describe the way of solving the two call boxes cases (Chapter IV) and then the n call boxes case (Chapter V). Throughout this work we assume homogeneous Poisson arrivals at the call boxes and independent and identically distributed headways between buses. Our analysis clearly demonstrates that relaxation of these assumptions would have a major negative impact on the mathematical tractability of our models. Several interesting questions for further research are also identified. Thesis Supervisor: Dr. Amedeo R. Odoni Titles: Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Professor of Civil Engineering